Well, here we go. I wound up seeing 45 of the 56 nominated movies; I saw everything in 20 of the 24 categories. Here's what I think can and should win in each category, with additional comments where necessary. Click on the name of each nominated movie to read my thoughts.
Best Picture: The Big Short, Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, The Revenant, Room, Spotlight
What should win: Spotlight
What will win: The Revenant
Note: I would have nominated Creed in this category, probably in place of Bridge of Spies, though Spotlight would still be my pick to win.
Actor in a Leading Role: The Danish Girl, The Martian, The Revenant, Steve Jobs, Trumbo
Who should win: Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs)
Who will win: Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)
Note: Michael B. Jordan (Creed) should have been nominated and probably should have won.
Actress in a Leading Role: 45 Years, Brooklyn, Carol, Joy, Room
Who should win: Brie Larson (Room), though I'd also be happy with Ronan or Rampling.
Who will win: Brie Larson (Room)
Actor in a Supporting Role: The Big Short, Bridge of Spies, Creed, The Revenant, Spotlight
Who should win: Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight), though Mark Rylance was also great. Mark R-something, whichever.
Who will win: Sylvester Stallone (Creed)
Actress in a Supporting Role: Carol, The Danish Girl, The Hateful Eight, Spotlight, Steve Jobs
Who should win: Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)
Who will win: Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)
Animated Feature Film: Anomalisa, Boy and the World, Inside Out, Shaun the Sheep Movie, When Marnie Came Home
What should win: Anomalisa
What will win: Inside Out
Note: Sorry, Animated Features, I'm just not that into you. Boy and the World was hard to find and I just didn't get to renting the other two. Of the two I saw, though, I thought Anomalisa was much better, though everyone in the world seems to have liked Inside Out way more than I did.
Cinematography: Carol, The Hateful Eight, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Revenant, Sicario
What should win: The Hateful Eight
What will win: The Revenant
Costume Design: Carol, Cinderella, The Danish Girl, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Revenant
What should win: Cinderella
What will win: Cinderella
Note: I would have nominated Brooklyn and Crimson Peak in this category, and given it to Crimson Peak.
Directing: The Big Short, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Revenant, Room, Spotlight
What should win: Spotlight
What will win: The Revenant
Documentary (Feature): Amy, Cartel Land, The Look of Silence, What Happened, Miss Simone?, Winter on Fire: Ukraine's Fight for Freedom
What should win: Winter on Fire
What will win: Amy
Note: This is the category that I'm saddest about not finishing - these were all pretty readily available to stream, so I put them off while I tried to catch harder-to-find things in the theaters, and then ran out of time. I liked Winter on Fire, but having seen only one thing in the category, I don't have a strong preference.
Documentary (Short Subject): Body Team 12, Chau, beyond the Lines, Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah, A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness, Last Day of Freedom
What should win: A Girl in the River (or Last Day of Freedom as a fairly close second choice)
What will win: Body Team 12
Film Editing: The Big Short, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Revenant, Spotlight, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
What should win: Spotlight
What will win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Foreign Language Film: Embrace of the Serpent, Mustang, Son of Saul, Theeb, A War
What should win: Mustang, though I really loved A War too.
What will win: Son of Saul
Note: Unfortunately, neither Theeb nor Embrace of the Serpent have opened anywhere in my area yet, so I couldn't see them.
Makeup and Hairstyling: The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Revenant
What should win: Mad Max: Fury Road
What will win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Music (Original Score): Bridge of Spies, Carol, The Hateful Eight, Sicario, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
What should win: The Hateful Eight
What will win: The Hateful Eight
Music (Original Song): Fifty Shades of Grey, The Hunting Ground, Racing Extinction, Spectre, Youth
What should win: Racing Extinction
What will win: The Hunting Ground
Note: This is another category I didn't manage to finish, but luckily, you can listen to all the songs online. Honestly, I wasn't wild about any of them. I kind of want Fifty Shades of Grey to win just to mess with people.
Production Design: Bridge of Spies, The Danish Girl, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, The Revenant
What should win: The Martian
What will win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Note: Crimson Peak and Carol should have been nominated here, and Crimson Peak should have won.
Short Film (Animated): Bear Story, Prologue, Sanjay's Super Team, We Can't Live without Cosmos, World of Tomorrow
What should win: World of Tomorrow, though I keep vacillating between that and Bear Story.
What will win: Sanjay's Super Team
Short Film (Live Action): Ave Maria, Day One, Everything Will Be Okay, Shok, Stutterer
What should win: Everything Will Be Okay
What will win: Shok
Sound Editing: Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, The Revenant, Sicario, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
What should win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
What will win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Sound Mixing: Bridge of Spies, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, The Revenant, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
What should win: The Martian
What will win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Visual Effects: Ex Machina, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, The Revenant, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
What should win: I'm torn between Ex Machina and The Martian.
What will win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Writing (Adapted Screenplay): The Big Short, Brooklyn, Carol, The Martian, Room
What should win: The Martian
What will win: The Big Short
Note: FWIW, I've read the source material for Brooklyn, The Martian, and Room, so I have a more complete opinion about them.
Writing (Original Screenplay): Bridge of Spies, Ex Machina, Inside Out, Spotlight, Straight Outta Compton
What should win: Spotlight
What will win: Spotlight
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